The Alberta government has commissioned a separate study to determine how much it would actually cost the province to secede from Canada and what economic consequences its residents would face.
The analysis will be conducted by the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary. To further evaluate the results, the government has also established an advisory board comprising economists, former politicians, and representatives of big business.
According to CBC, the total cost of the study and the advisory board’s work could reach $1.5 million.
The final report is scheduled to be released in late summer 2026—before the provincial referendum set for October 19.
Why the government commissioned a separate study
The debate over Alberta’s potential secession from Canada has long gone beyond political slogans. Proponents and opponents of secession cite vastly different figures when discussing the province’s potential costs, revenues, and future.
Some argue that Alberta could retain more tax revenue and manage its natural resources independently. Others warn of the enormous costs of establishing government institutions, allocating federal debt, changing trade relations, and providing services currently delivered by the Canadian government.
The problem is that most of these estimates are based on different assumptions. That is why the government decided to commission a separate analysis to compile the key costs, risks, and potential benefits into a single document.
Alberta Finance Minister Jason Nixon stated that a decision of this magnitude will affect not only the province’s current residents but also future generations. According to him, people must receive clear and reliable information before the vote.
What exactly needs to be calculated
The government expects the study to help assess the transition costs, overall economic consequences, potential savings, and risks associated with Alberta’s secession from Canada.
It is not just a matter of how much money the province currently transfers to the federal government. If Alberta were to secede, it would have to organize or fund many functions on its own that are currently the responsibility of Ottawa.
According to the CBC, issues that may be included in the analysis include:
- the issuance of passports and other documents;
- tax administration;
- aviation regulation;
- funding for social programs;
- services for Indigenous peoples;
- the organization of defense and the armed forces;
- police operations and the replacement of RCMP services;
- the management of national parks;
- the creation of new government institutions;
- transition costs associated with the transfer of federal functions.
Separately, researchers must assess not only the costs but also the potential savings or additional revenues cited by independence advocates.
At the same time, the economic study will not be able to provide definitive answers to all questions. The actual terms of a potential secession would depend on future negotiations with the federal government, other provinces, Indigenous peoples, and international partners.
Who will prepare the report
The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy will conduct the main analytical work.
The school’s director, Martha Hall Findlay, stated that researchers must assess transition costs, economic impacts, potential benefits, and other financial issues that could directly affect Albertans.
The government emphasizes that the university will retain full control over the preparation and final editing of the report. This means that the advisory board will be able to offer comments and suggest topics for consideration, but it will not determine the researchers’ conclusions.
This is an important point, as the issue of secession remains highly politicized. The final figures may depend significantly on the assumptions the authors use.
For example, estimates may vary regarding future trade conditions, the cost of servicing debt, the currency system, pensions, taxation, border security, and access to federal infrastructure.
Who is on the advisory board
The advisory board will be led by economist Jack Mintz, who has previously served on various expert panels and advised Alberta governments.
The board also includes:
- Ted Morton — political scientist and former Alberta Minister of Finance;
- Adam Legg — President of the Business Council of Alberta;
- Alex Purbe — Chair of the Board of Directors at Cenovus Energy;
- Janice McKinnon — former Minister of Finance for Saskatchewan.
The council will advise researchers and the government during the report’s preparation. Once the University of Calgary has completed its work, the experts will review the results separately and submit their own written assessment.
Thus, Albertans will receive two documents: the university’s main economic report and a separate conclusion from the advisory board. The positions outlined in these documents may not fully align.
Why the study will be so expensive
The Alberta government’s official release does not include information on the exact cost of the project. At the same time, CBC reports that up to $1.5 million has been allocated for the study and the advisory board’s work.
This amount may include researchers’ work, data collection and analysis, economic modeling, the development of various scenarios, consultations with experts, and a separate assessment by the advisory board.
The phrasing “up to $1.5 million” refers to the maximum possible amount, not necessarily the final cost. How much money will actually be spent and how it will be divided between the university and the advisory board has not yet been explained in detail.
Due to the political sensitivity of the issue, the question of cost may also become a topic of debate. Supporters of the study believe that $1.5 million is a relatively small amount for analyzing a decision capable of completely changing the province’s future. Critics may ask whether it is necessary to spend public funds on a scenario that has not yet received the support of the majority of residents.
When the results will be released
The final report is expected in late summer 2026. The government wants to publish it in advance so that Albertans can review the findings before the October 19 vote.
There is little time left to prepare the document. Researchers must assess a complex system of financial, trade, and administrative relationships that has evolved over decades.
Even a detailed report is unlikely to provide a single precise figure. Most likely, it will present several scenarios based on different economic and political assumptions.
For example, the costs may depend on the terms under which Alberta would negotiate trade with Canada, what portion of the federal debt it would have to assume, and whether it could continue to use certain Canadian institutions under special agreements.
What This Means for Albertans
For ordinary residents, practical questions remain paramount: what will happen to taxes, pensions, healthcare programs, federal benefits, bank accounts, jobs, and prices.
Equally important is the issue of business stability. Companies need to understand whether free trade with the rest of Canada will continue, and how taxes, export regulations, and access to the workforce will change.
Future research should provide at least preliminary answers to some of these questions. However, the final consequences would depend not only on economic calculations but also on the results of negotiations, political decisions, and investor reactions.
The report’s main value will lie in whether it can separate real figures from political statements and show Albertans not only the potential benefits but also the full cost of such a decision.
The document is expected to be released in late summer. That is when it will become clear what assumptions the researchers used, how detailed the calculations will be, and whether the report will help make the discussion about Alberta’s future more substantive.