Despite loud talk of “Alberta sovereignty” and the activity of referendum supporters, most residents of the province are not ready to support secession from Canada today. This is evidenced by the results of a new study by the Angus Reid Institute.
Key figures: 65% in favor of Canada, 29% in favor of secession
If a referendum on secession were held now, 29% of respondents would vote to leave, while 65% would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada (the rest are undecided/did not respond). An important nuance: only a small proportion — 8% — are “definitely leaving,” while 21% are leaning toward such a vote. On the other hand, among supporters of unity, 57% say they would definitely vote for Canada, and another 8% say they are inclined to do so.
Why the topic is back in the spotlight
Apart from the poll numbers, the provincial debate is being fueled by real political processes: in particular, a public campaign to collect signatures to initiate a vote. According to media reports, for the petition to be successful, approximately 177,000 signatures must be collected by May 2, 2026, after which the signatures must be verified by the election administration.
What exactly convinces “Canada supporters” — and why some still hesitate
Researchers note that even among those who would definitely vote for Canada, there are pragmatic (and not just emotional) arguments. For example, 93% of this group agree that it would be difficult for an independent (non-coastal) Alberta to sell resources on global markets, and 88% believe that independence could worsen their personal financial prospects.
At the same time, the “lean stay” group (those who are more inclined toward Canada, but without absolute certainty) demonstrates an interesting “dual” logic: they partially support the arguments for unity, but at the same time recognize the strength of some of the arguments made by supporters of secession — in particular, that Alberta “gives more than it gets” and that it would have greater control over its resources.
Political divide: UCP voters are more supportive of secession
A separate intrigue is the party divide. The ARI report notes that among United Conservative Party (UCP) voters, 16% say they would definitely vote for secession, and another 41% are inclined to do so. This highlights why the issue occasionally becomes a political “stress test” for the provincial government.
“Different information bubbles”: where do ‘stay’ and “leave” supporters get their news?
Another finding of the study is that people who would vote “for Canada” and “for leaving” often live in different information environments. For “stay,” the most common sources are traditional media and social networks, while for “leave,” they are alternative media and conversations with loved ones.